McKinley

Essays

Longer arguments, finished enough to defend.

The pieces here take a single idea about risk or performance and follow it until it holds. Each is dated; the newest sits first.

  1. The Gap

    The distance between knowing the right action and taking it, in markets and in training, and why you should measure it directly.

  2. Why Confidence Is the Wrong Thing to Track

    Calibration tells you more than conviction ever will.

  3. How Much to Bet When You Are Probably Wrong

    Position sizing as the part of a view you can actually control.