McKinley

I write here about risk, probability, and how people perform when the outcome is not in their hands. The recurring idea is the gap: the distance between what you believe, what you decide, and what actually happens. Most of these are working notes, revised in public.

Essays

Longer arguments, finished enough to defend.

  1. The Gap

    The distance between knowing the right action and taking it, in markets and in training, and why you should measure it directly.

  2. Why Confidence Is the Wrong Thing to Track

    Calibration tells you more than conviction ever will.

  3. How Much to Bet When You Are Probably Wrong

    Position sizing as the part of a view you can actually control.

Notes

Shorter observations, kept in the margin.

  1. Operators Beat Founders at Repeated Games

    Why the edge shifts to execution once a game is played more than once.

  2. A Forecast Is Not a Position

    A forecast is an opinion you can hold for free; a position costs you when it is wrong.

  3. What 45-Mile Weeks Teach About Variance

    Volume is how you find out which days were noise.